Manchester City, the reigning Premier League champions, were among the favorites to win the newly formatted Champions League this season. However, they now face the real threat of early elimination after a shocking group-stage campaign.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. City have dominated European nights in recent years, reaching two Champions League finals in the last four seasons and lifting the trophy in 2023. Their eyes were firmly set on the Munich final this year, hoping to reclaim the crown.
However, Pep Guardiola’s men are now on the brink of missing out entirely, with just two wins from seven group-stage matches and three defeats—the same number of losses they suffered across the last three seasons combined. Their latest setback, a dramatic collapse against PSG, has left them needing a victory over Club Brugge to even reach the playoff round.
As Guardiola himself admitted:
“We have one last chance against Brugge. If we don’t qualify, it’s because we don’t deserve it.”
Here’s a breakdown of the six biggest reasons behind Manchester City’s shocking struggles in the Champions League this season.
1. Tough Draw & Bad Timing
The new Champions League format was a shock to City’s system, particularly since they were used to breezing through group stages in previous seasons.
- Last season, City won all six group games and topped their group for seven consecutive campaigns.
- Often, they had qualified early, rendering the final group games almost meaningless.
- This time, however, they were drawn into a brutal group with PSG, Juventus, and Inter Milan.
While Liverpool and Arsenal had home games against major European opponents like Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, City had to travel to face PSG and Juventus.
Adding to their misery, they faced Sporting Lisbon at their peak under Ruben Amorim, suffering a 4-1 thrashing. Meanwhile, Arsenal played the same team weeks later when Sporting had slumped under João Pereira, easily winning 5-1.
The timing and draw have not been in City’s favor, but their struggles run deeper than just bad luck.
2. Defensive Frailties & Costly Individual Errors
City’s usually rock-solid defense has crumbled in Europe, leading to cheap goals conceded and moments of panic in crucial games.
- Ruben Dias, usually a defensive leader, has been error-prone, making key mistakes in multiple matches.
- Against PSG, a late defensive collapse saw them throw away a potential draw.
- Poor set-piece defending has been a recurring issue, allowing teams like Inter and Juventus to capitalize.
In contrast to their Premier League dominance, City have looked vulnerable under pressure in Europe, failing to close out games or handle intense pressing systems effectively.
3. Tactical Struggles & Lack of Adaptation
Pep Guardiola is known for his tactical genius, but this season, he has struggled to find the right balance in Europe.
- City’s possession-heavy style has been exploited by high-pressing teams, forcing mistakes in dangerous areas.
- Guardiola has experimented with different formations, including a three-man defense that backfired.
- His tactical adjustments mid-game have been questionable, leading to City losing control in key moments.
This lack of consistency and clarity has left City looking uncharacteristically vulnerable in key Champions League matches.
4. Lack of Clinical Finishing
Despite dominating possession and creating numerous chances, City have struggled to finish their opportunities.
- Erling Haaland has been inconsistent, missing key chances in close games.
- Kevin De Bruyne’s injuries have limited his creative impact, making City’s attack less fluid.
- Jack Grealish and Jeremy Doku have provided moments of brilliance but lacked end product in crucial matches.
Against Inter Milan and Juventus, City had higher xG (expected goals) but failed to convert, costing them valuable points.
5. Squad Fatigue & Injuries
A gruelling Premier League schedule has left City’s squad physically and mentally drained for their Champions League matches.
- Rodri’s suspension earlier in the season hurt City’s midfield control.
- Key players like De Bruyne, Stones, and Haaland have missed crucial games.
- Guardiola has been forced to rotate heavily, leading to a lack of rhythm and chemistry.
With City competing on multiple fronts, fatigue has played a big role in their lackluster European performances.
6. Psychological Pressure & Complacency
After winning the Champions League in 2023, there was an expectation that City would easily dominate again.
- However, their complacency has been exposed, as they have struggled to match the hunger and intensity of teams desperate to knock them out.
- Guardiola himself has seemed frustrated, admitting that his players lack the same urgency and motivation as last season.
- The weight of being defending champions appears to have mentally drained some key stars.
City expected an easier ride, but the new format and high-level opposition have caught them off guard.
Can City Still Recover?
With one final chance against Club Brugge, City must win to avoid an embarrassing early exit.
If they do qualify for the knockout rounds, Guardiola will need to urgently fix their defensive issues, improve squad rotation, and restore their attacking efficiency if they hope to retain their title.
But if they fail?
City will be watching the rest of the Champions League from their sofas, wondering how it all went so wrong.
